CLARITY Bill Left Off Senate Push; Predictive Odds of 2026 Passage Slide to 16%

Aug. 5 — Crypto reporter Eleanor Terrett said Senate Majority Leader John Thune formally filed a motion to proceed on a separate set of bills today, leaving the "Crypto Market Structure Act"—known as the CLARITY bill—off the list. The motion to proceed is a key procedural step to advance legislation in the Senate. Thune's decision to prioritize other measures signals that the CLARITY bill's central sticking points remain unresolved, particularly the dispute over who would hold enforcement authority for the bill's ethics provisions. With the Senate set to enter its August recess, the window for moving CLARITY toward a floor vote is narrowing quickly. The bill previously cleared the Senate Banking Committee, but Democrats and Republicans are still deadlocked over an ethics clause that would bar federal officials from issuing digital assets. The impasse centers on whether enforcement should be led exclusively by the U.S. Department of Justice or also include state attorneys general. Maryland Sen. Alsobrooks has said she will not support the bill if enforcement authority is limited to the Justice Department and not preserved for states. Thune's move to give agenda priority to other bills has reinforced expectations that CLARITY is unlikely to reach a full Senate vote before the recess. On prediction market Predict.fun, the probability of the CLARITY bill becoming law by 2026 has fallen to 16%.