Bitcoin is trading around $65,978, still below the $69,000 level that Glassnode flags as the average cost basis for short-term holders. Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting to see whether policy guidance can help close that gap. Recent U.S. data have pulled in opposite directions. June payroll growth came in at 57,000, the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, and revisions reduced April and May job gains by a combined 74,000. Core CPI was flat month over month and eased to 2.6% year over year, reinforcing expectations for a less restrictive Fed. Headline CPI, which is more sensitive to energy, printed 3.5% year over year. Energy and rates have reintroduced pressure. Brent crude futures settled near $94 this week after touching an intraday high of $95.47. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.67%, while the 30-year yield has remained above 5% for 11 straight sessions, the longest run since May. Rate-hike pricing for July moved into roughly the 25%–33% range; one CME-based measure put the odds at 33.7%, up from 25.7% the prior day. Glassnode argues Bitcoin is facing conflicting Fed signals: weaker labor and softer core inflation versus higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields, and higher hike odds. The firm’s on-chain data suggest Bitcoin has already leaned into the optimistic interpretation, even as an oil shock and the Fed decision converge. Positioning and flows point to improved near-term sentiment. Glassnode notes short positions have been closed, downside hedging has dropped sharply, exchange inflows have fallen to multi-week lows, and Bitcoin has outperformed equities through the recent oil move. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive days of inflows from July 14 through July 21, adding about $930.2 million and reversing a $424.7 million outflow seen on July 13. Cohort data show the rebound is being driven primarily by large holders. Wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC—often associated with funds and large trading desks—account for most of the recent accumulation. Mid-sized holders have returned to distributing, and Glassnode’s composite market gauge remains in "risk-off" mode, indicating broader participation has not yet returned. That leaves the rally dependent on a Fed pivot that has not been delivered. If the Fed disappoints, Glassnode suggests the first group likely to absorb the reversal would be the same buyers currently supporting price—ETF inflows and the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort—because smaller-holder participation remains limited. Key signals highlighted by Glassnode include: - BTC spot price: ~$65,978, still below the short-term holder cost basis - Short-term holder cost basis: ~$69,000, the key level for confirming a breakout - Demand shelf: ~$63,000, where about 10% of supply sits - ETF flows: +$930.2M over six positive sessions; July 13 saw a -$424.7M outflow that was later reversed - Primary accumulating cohort: 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets; mid-sized holders are distributing - Glassnode market compass: still "risk-off" Rates may cap upside beneath the $69,000 area. With the 10-year yield near 4.67% and the 10-year TIPS yield around 2.36%, discount rates remain elevated for risk assets. In oil markets, Brent’s three-month timespread widened to about $9.26, the steepest backwardation since May 22, a structure typically associated with tight near-term supply and firmer headline inflation expectations—one factor that helped lift July hike odds. Glassnode also frames Bitcoin increasingly as a dollar-liquidity asset, citing a deepening inverse relationship with the dollar. In a prior report, the firm identified a 10-year yield ceiling near 4.45% and a dollar index ceiling near 99 as thresholds supportive for risk assets. Currently, the 10-year yield is about 4.67% and the dollar index is near 101.14. Into July 29, Glassnode outlines two paths: Bull case: The Fed holds rates and emphasizes labor weakness as the dominant risk. Brent cools toward the EIA’s July forecast of $74 for Q3, and the 10-year yield drops below the 4.45% level Glassnode views as decisive. ETF inflows continue, exchange inflows stay low, and accumulation expands beyond whale wallets. In that setup, Bitcoin could clear $69,000 and move into the $84,000 zone Glassnode identifies as the next open range. Bear case: The Fed holds rates but keeps the door open to a later hike if oil stays elevated. Brent remains near $94, the 30-year yield stays above 5%, and real yields keep the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset high. ETF inflows fade or reverse, exchange inflows rise, and $69,000 acts as resistance. Bitcoin would likely retest the $63,000 demand shelf, where about 10% of supply is concentrated. A key failure point in this framework is the bond market rejecting a dovish interpretation. A break below $63,000—or heavy supply absorption at that level—would represent the first major stress test for the renewed institutional bid. Macro forecasts underline the gap between current pricing and expectations. The EIA’s July outlook sees Brent averaging $74 a barrel in the third quarter and $65 in 2027, roughly $20 to $30 below current levels. The IMF’s July update projected 3.0% global growth for 2026 and assumed the Strait of Hormuz reopens by mid-July and normalizes by March 2027, with oil averaging about $89 across the year—an assumption spot Brent has already exceeded. Glassnode’s conclusion is that the Fed’s July 29 decision will determine whether the ETF buyers and large wallets behind the recent rebound reflect a durable return of institutional demand or a short-lived wager on dovish policy. A reclaim of $69,000 backed by broader participation would support the former. A rejection at $69,000 followed by a move back toward the $63,000 shelf—after shorts, hedges, and sellers have already been cleared—would suggest the bond market is still pricing inflation risk and that crypto-native demand remains subdued, turning $63,000 into the market’s audit of whether the new bid is real or tactical.

Smarter Web Company (SWC), a UK-based web design and marketing firm, said it sold 177.89 bitcoin to repay $11.69 million owed to TOBAM under a previously agreed arrangement via the Smarter Convert instrument. Following the transaction, SWC's bitcoin holdings total 2,700 BTC, keeping it among the larger corporate holders of the cryptocurrency. The company framed the sale as part of its ongoing bitcoin treasury strategy and longer-term approach to managing digital-asset reserves. Market participants may view the move as liquidity management rather than a change in accumulation plans, since SWC liquidated a portion of its holdings to meet financial obligations. Trading and pricing activity tied to bitcoin suggests investors are assessing the implications of the sale. Pricing for bitcoin's future value as of July 24 indicates confidence that the asset will remain above several key levels despite SWC's reduced position. Key takeaways: - SWC's sale of 177.89 BTC reflects a liquidity and liability-management decision. - The company continues to hold 2,700 BTC, consistent with a long-term treasury approach. - Market pricing points to confidence in bitcoin's resilience above key price thresholds. What to watch: Investors will be monitoring any further changes to SWC's financing plans and bitcoin treasury management for potential signals on sentiment. Bitcoin's price reaction may also offer clues about near-term market perceptions. Macro catalysts in the days ahead—including the upcoming U.S. CPI release and Federal Reserve communications—could influence broader crypto market dynamics. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

The Smarter Web Company has repaid its Smarter Convert convertible note about two weeks ahead of schedule, according to an official announcement cited by Odaily Planet Daily. The UK-listed firm said it paid roughly $11.6985 million to TOBAM Group, funding the repayment by selling 177.89 bitcoin at an average price of $65,762. CEO said the structure had previously been valued for its flexibility but is no longer viewed as an appropriate capital solution. After the repayment, the company holds 2,700 BTC, and the related potential share issuance has been canceled.

Tesla's second-quarter 2026 results missed market expectations, sending the stock down more than 4% in premarket trading. The company also said its bitcoin position was unchanged and recorded a $112 million unrealized loss on the holding. On July 22, 2026, Tesla reported Q2 2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% from a year earlier. Gross profit rose 23% year over year to $4.7 billion. Profitability metrics trailed forecasts: adjusted EPS was $0.33 versus the $0.50 consensus estimate, and adjusted EBITDA was $3.273 billion compared with expectations of $4.0 billion. The miss came as operating expenses jumped 47% year over year and operating income dropped 57%, weighing on margins and cash inflows. Tesla pointed to expanding capacity and output: Q2 deliveries rose 25% to 480,126 vehicles, the strongest second quarter in company history. Production totaled 451,758 vehicles, and energy storage deployments reached 13.5 GWh, up 40% from a year earlier. Tesla also reiterated plans to roll out the first Optimus robots by the end of 2026. The company said initial batches will be used at its Optimus Academy to collect training data and improve functionality. Increased spending tied to Optimus and the Cybercab robotaxi initiative likely contributed to higher operating expenses. Bitcoin holdings were unchanged, the filing showed. Tesla did not disclose the exact number of bitcoins on its balance sheet. It previously reported 9,720 BTC, while Arkham Intelligence estimates 11,509 BTC. The portfolio's carrying value fell to $674 million from $786 million, resulting in a $112 million unrealized loss, about half the level recorded in Q1. Source: Tesla filings; Yahoo Finance.

Bitcoin's move back above $65,000 is being driven by a blend of improving macro conditions, renewed institutional demand, and supportive on-chain positioning rather than any single trigger. The clearest proof is the latest run of ETF inflows, while the key technical-on-chain hurdle sits at the $69,000 short-term holder (STH) cost basis. BTC was trading at $65,747 as of July 23, 2026, up 1.59% over the past seven days and 4.59% over the last 30 days, with a market capitalization of about $1.31 trillion. Even so, Bitcoin remains 24.87% below the $126,000 all-time high set around October 2025. The recent rebound has taken BTC as high as $66,300, with sentiment improving after a softer CPI reading. Signal 1: Bitcoin ETFs extend inflows to seven straight sessions Santiment data shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged seven consecutive trading days of net inflows since July 14, 2026, totaling roughly $981.2 million over the stretch (about $140 million per day on average). The run is notable because it's the first seven-day inflow streak in nine months. The last comparable streak occurred in early October 2025, when Bitcoin was advancing toward its all-time high near $126,000. What to take from the historical parallel: - Constructive read-through: Multi-day inflow streaks have often aligned with rebuilding institutional conviction and stronger price action. - Key caution: The prior instance also came as BTC was nearing a major top. A single outsized inflow day within a streak can reflect overheating and FOMO-driven buying that has, at times, coincided with local peaks. So far, the current pattern looks steadier than euphoric. Notably, July 14’s CPI-linked jump delivered about $181 million of inflows in one day, and the subsequent streak suggests demand has persisted beyond the initial macro reaction rather than fading after the first session. Short covering has added fuel as well. Recent liquidation and closing of bearish positioning has reduced overhead pressure from leveraged shorts, helping BTC stabilize and hold above $65,000. While short-covering rallies aren't the same as demand-led advances, they can amplify upside when paired with sustained inflows. Signal 2: Glassnode's on-chain level map flags $69,000 as the inflection point Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) and cost-basis metrics highlight a clear roadmap for the next phase. - $69,000 STH cost basis (confirmation level): This metric tracks the average purchase price of coins held by addresses with a holding period under 155 days, a cohort typically more reactive to price swings. When BTC trades below this level, recent buyers are sitting on unrealized losses, increasing the risk of sell pressure into rallies. A sustained reclaim of $69,000 would put that group back in profit, easing psychological pressure and historically signaling the market is prepared for another leg higher. From $65,747, reaching $69,000 implies roughly 5% upside. - ~$63,000 demand cluster (near-term floor): Price action has been leaning on a support zone around the median realized price cluster near $63,000, where a large share of supply last changed hands. Continued defense of this area has helped underpin the current recovery structure. - $84,000 overhead supply wall (next major obstacle): If BTC can reclaim $69,000, Glassnode identifies roughly $84,000 as a heavier concentration of overhead supply. Clearing $84,000 on a sustained basis would more credibly reopen the route toward prior highs. Broader backdrop: multiple bottoming signals are lining up The ETF streak adds an institutional flow confirmation layer to a set of indicators that, through June and July 2026, have been pointing to a late-stage bottoming process. Those signals include: long-term holder supply showing meaningful portions in loss alongside continued accumulation, a 147-day weekly bullish divergence echoing the 2022 bottoming pattern, and the Porkopolis Power Law 4.3% quantile marking historically rare value zones. Risks that could stall the rebound - Profit-taking near $69,000: Sellers who bought around the STH cost basis may use that level to exit near breakeven, potentially capping the move if demand fails to absorb supply. - FOMO concentration: A sudden, dramatic spike in daily ETF inflows as BTC approaches resistance has historically been more consistent with overheating than durable momentum. Bottom line Bitcoin at $65,747 is showing its most constructive near-term setup since the correction began: softer CPI is improving the macro tone, seven straight ETF inflow sessions suggest institutional confidence is rebuilding, short covering is reducing immediate overhead pressure, and the $63,000 realized-price cluster is holding as a demand floor. The market's key test is $69,000, the STH cost basis that separates a bounce from a more durable advance. A sustained move above that level, backed by continued ETF inflows and confirming volume, would improve the odds of a push into the mid-$70,000s and eventually a challenge of the $84,000 overhead supply zone. FAQ How many consecutive days have Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows? Seven straight trading days since July 14, 2026, totaling about $981.2 million in net inflows, per Santiment. When was the last comparable streak? Early October 2025, when BTC was moving toward its all-time high near $126,000. What is the STH cost basis, and why does $69,000 matter? It's the average acquisition price for coins held less than 155 days. Reclaiming $69,000 would put recent buyers back in profit, easing sell pressure and historically supporting a stronger continuation move.

THE BLOCK reported that Nasdaq-listed insurtech firm Zhibao has signed a nonbinding term sheet for a private investment in public equity (PIPE) financing that is expected to include approximately 3,500 bitcoin, valued at about US$230 million, as consideration. The proposed transaction remains subject to due diligence and regulatory review.

Escalating tensions involving Iran sent oil prices sharply higher and left global equities flat to lower. Bitcoin absorbed the shock and outperformed both major equity benchmarks for a second straight week, a sign that marginal selling pressure may be largely depleted. On the macro front, core inflation posted its first decline in five months, arriving just ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. With the policy rate still more than 100 basis points above core inflation, conditions remain restrictive, but the data gives the Federal Reserve room to pivot. Markets are watching whether the Fed signals potential easing; absent that, crypto markets may continue to lean primarily on internal momentum. Rates, though, remain a headwind. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has moved back toward the top of its recent range, while the dollar has stayed relatively steady. This cycle's visible cap remains a 10-year yield above 4.45% and a U.S. Dollar Index above 99. A sustained break lower in both would act as a broader macro release valve for risk assets. Bitcoin is now trading in a clear decision zone. Overhead sits the short-term holder (STH) cost basis near $69,000—the breakeven level for buyers over the past five months. Below lies the market's strongest demand support band around $63,000, representing roughly one-tenth of supply and aligning with the median coin's last transacted price. The realized price floor sits materially lower. This setup creates a familiar asymmetry: in downtrends, the STH breakeven level often turns into sell pressure as recent buyers rush to exit at cost. If price convincingly reclaims $69,000, on-chain positioning suggests relatively thin resistance until the $84,000 region, leaving room for faster repricing. Failure to break through would put the $63,000 support zone back in focus. Near-term supply dynamics lean slightly supportive. Weighted cost-basis data shows supply around spot is split between support below and resistance above, with the supportive side now marginally larger—a potential shift away from the resistance-heavy structure that has dominated since spring. A rebound typically needs profit-taking to stall, but the necessary fuel has not yet built. A classic trigger is when profit-taking supply from short-term holders rises above 54%; current readings remain well below that level, and the STH SOPR is holding near breakeven rather than rolling over. Exchange flows also point to easing sell pressure. During the early-June breakdown, exchanges saw a spike in net inflows, signaling coins moving into venues where they could be sold. Those inflows have weakened for weeks and are now only a fraction of their peak. With no dominant net outflow, the signal is neutral: demand is absorbing supply, but the healthier pattern of sustained withdrawals has not fully returned—a dynamic that ETF-related flows are only beginning to improve. Accumulation is increasingly concentrated rather than broad-based. The June rebound started with widespread buying across wallet cohorts, but the past two weeks show accumulation narrowing to the 1,000–10,000 BTC group. Historically, these large holders can lead durable reversals, yet a rally supported by a single cohort is more fragile than one backed by broad participation. Renewed breadth will be a key differentiator between a short squeeze and a trend shift. Off-exchange and derivatives indicators have also begun to align with the rebound. After weeks in which improving sentiment in derivatives was offset by ETF outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned to net inflows—the first sustained buying since the June redemption wave ended. The reversal is still early and modest in size, but it shifts the rally from being purely derivatives-driven toward one supported by spot demand; persistence of inflows will matter more than magnitude. Options positioning is also evolving. The market's maximum pain level—the strike where the largest share of options expire worthless—acted as overhead resistance through spring. Bitcoin has now moved above that aggregate level. If price holds above it into the next options cycle, dealer hedging flows are more likely to dampen volatility rather than amplify it, turning the former ceiling into a stabilizing anchor. The hedging unwind has become more visible. Since the June low, traders have been closing shorts and allowing downside protection to expire. The one-week 25-delta skew has fallen to multi-month lows, led by the front end of the curve and followed by the one-month tenor. Composite measures echo the shift: the bearish-to-bullish open interest ratio is at its lowest this year, the volume ratio has roughly halved since the June hedging peak, and perpetual funding has remained below neutral for the past month. The tone is improving mainly because protection is being removed, not because new leveraged longs are being added—a setup that tends to produce milder liquidation cascades on pullbacks than rallies driven by overheated funding. Under the surface, capital rotation continues to favor Bitcoin. Altcoins have weakened against BTC for years; that decline appeared to stabilize this spring, marking what looked like the most constructive altcoin base of the bear market. Over the past week, the drift lower resumed as Bitcoin rose, with low-cap coins losing ground versus BTC. This leadership dynamic is typically constructive: sustainable recoveries often begin with Bitcoin attracting liquidity first before spillover reaches smaller assets. Overall, the rebound still needs confirmation. The squeeze has delivered the usual ingredients—hedges unwinding, short covering, stable funding, and ETFs shifting from drag to support—but price has not yet cleared the key resistance. Bitcoin remains below the $69,000 STH cost basis, with a potential upside "air pocket" toward $84,000 if reclaimed, and a $63,000 demand band below with support still forming. A decisive move above $69,000 alongside sustained spot inflows would open the upside path; renewed resistance paired with a return of exchange inflows would raise the odds of a pullback to test support.

Bitdeer Technologies Group said it mined 990 bitcoins in June, up 7.5% from 921 in May and up 388% from 203 a year earlier. The company's self-operated hashrate reached 73 EH/s at the end of June, compared with 70.2 EH/s at the end of May and 16.5 EH/s a year ago. Bitdeer added 12,000 self-operated miners in June, bringing its fleet to 243,000 units. It also ran an additional 56,000 of its own machines at third-party data centers under co-mining arrangements, with associated hashrate rising 59% month over month to 15.9 EH/s. Bitdeer held 150 bitcoins as of the end of June, down from 171 at the end of May. Bitdeer also reported that its AI Cloud annualized revenue run rate increased to about $76 million from $69 million in May. GPU utilization rose from 90% to 95%, while externally subscribed GPUs increased from 3,305 to 3,517. The company said the run rate is calculated by annualizing daily revenue from active GPU contracts at month-end and does not represent recognized annual revenue or revenue guidance. Bitdeer said it has completed customer delivery for a five-year GPU cloud contract, including deployment of two NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 clusters. It also signed a 10-year lease for a data center in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, with 21.7 megawatts of IT capacity, scheduled for delivery in the first quarter of 2027 and designed to support 128 NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 systems.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted net inflows for seven consecutive days since July 14, according to Santiment. Total net inflows over the period reached $981.2 million. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed as high as $66,300 during the streak. The last comparable run of sustained inflows was seen in October 2025, when BTC was nearing its all-time high of $126,000. (Santiment)