CFTC issues new guidance on prediction markets as Chair Selig outlines rules for event contracts

On Thursday, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission published guidance explaining how exchanges should list event-based prediction market contracts while Chair Mike Selig highlighted plans to define clearer "rules of the road." The advisory stresses that designated contract markets must ensure products are not vulnerable to manipulation, as platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket see record volumes and valuations reportedly approaching $20 billion each. It also flags heightened risks for narrowly defined sports and violence-linked contracts amid mounting ethical and legal scrutiny.