Bitcoin HODL Waves Shift and Realized Cap Compression Flag Bearish Setup in February 2025

On a recent Tuesday, Bitcoin briefly slid to $62,700 after a 5% drop, while on-chain data showed capital flowing out of the network and aging supply. Realized Cap has fallen for a second month, and coins last moved 3–6 months ago now represent about 26% of supply, signaling weak new buyer activity. Analysts also point to a potential death cross on the three-day chart projected for late February 2025, echoing patterns seen before prior bear market capitulations.