Analyst Sees Echo of 2017: A 50% Bitcoin Drawdown Could Precede a Fresh Altcoin Run
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $62,000 on June 4, a move that coincided with the first notable pullback in BTC dominance in nearly eight months, according to analyst CrediBULL Crypto. The combination has reignited talk of an altcoin-led phase, as many tokens have shown unusual resilience during BTC's slide—a pattern previously seen around major turning points in crypto market cycles.
CrediBULL argues that the biggest altcoin surge of the 2017 cycle only began after Bitcoin had already fallen 50% from its peak, found a base, and then started to recover. In that window, altcoin market capitalization tripled from the lows and went on to set fresh all-time highs.
He says a comparable setup may be forming today, with BTC trading more than 50% below the all-time high it posted in October 2025 and many altcoins avoiding the kind of broad capitulation typical of past bear markets. "Many are noticing the relative strength in alts at these levels as BTC melts but many alts hold relatively 'steady,' sending BTC dominance down in the first significant pullback on BTC dom that we have had in nearly 8 months," he wrote.
In a follow-up exchange, the analyst added that a string of "mini altseasons" could unfold before a larger rally later on—one he expects to arrive after a Bitcoin blow-off top that has not yet occurred.
Another analyst, Sykodelic, offered a similar view earlier this week, calling it "an exhausted market in which alts are no longer responding to weakness." They also pointed to the OTHERS.D chart closing above its 200-day moving average, a level that has historically preceded outsized moves in smaller tokens.
Not everyone is convinced. Daan Crypto Trades noted that the total altcoin market cap excluding stablecoins has been range-bound for more than two years, and that much of the recent strength has been concentrated in a small group of tokens. "For this to properly bounce, you'd need more life out of the likes of ETH and other majors," he said.
Ethereum (ETH) recently hit a 14-month low near $1,700, while other top-10 names fell between 8% and 4% over the past 24 hours. Over the last seven days, Hyperliquid's HYPE was the only major exception, rising more than 18% as every other cryptocurrency with an 11-figure market cap or higher posted steep losses.
BTC itself was down nearly 7% on the day and more than 13% over the week, last trading roughly $500 below $63,000 after dipping to a four-month low near $61,000. The selloff liquidated over 270,000 leveraged traders in 24 hours, with total liquidations topping $1.6 billion, mostly from long positions.
Pressure has also built in the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Data from SoSoValue shows about $1.4 billion of net outflows over the first three days of June.
