Bitcoin is trading near $67,400 while defending the $66,000–$65,729 support zone amid rising geopolitical risk. According to Polymarket, bettors assign a 61% chance of a U.S. strike on Iran this month, and CryptoQuant data shows Short-Term Holder SOPR below 1.0. A daily close beneath support could refocus attention on $60,000.

Bitcoin developer Matt Carallo told the Unchained podcast on Thursday that quantum-computing fears are not behind Bitcoin's latest slide, arguing Ether would be outperforming if they were. He noted Ether is down 58% since early October and around $1,957, while Bitcoin has fallen 46% from its October high of $126,100 to about $67,162.

Bitcoin slipped to a $65,650 low and is holding beneath $67,500 and the 100‑hour simple moving average. A push above the $67,400–$68,000 resistance zone could open $68,800 and $69,500, while failure risks revisiting $66,000, $65,650 and potentially $65,050–$64,500. Hourly MACD is losing bearish momentum as RSI stays above 50.

Bitcoin’s price is stabilizing, but on-chain data shows a 42% slide in active addresses and a 47% fall in new address creation since the 2021 cycle peak. Recent analysis also indicates about $27.89 billion in unrealized losses, a 23% value drawdown, with ETF and self-custody holders under pressure around key support levels near $58,700 and $54,700.

Bitcoin fell to a low of $60,000 after flashing a sell signal near $95,000, and was trading at $66,988 with a 1.75% daily loss and a 46% drawdown from its $126,000 peak. Key on-chain and market metrics, including a Sharpe Ratio of -38, an all-time high Stock to Flow Ratio rising from 127 to 261, and the MVRV Z Score dropping to $0.445, suggest a possible cycle bottom even as price consolidates between $65,000 and $70,000. Despite extreme bearish sentiment and weak market structure, heightened scarcity and historical patterns could set the stage for a future recovery if selling pressure eases.

Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to close above $70,000 and remained capped below that level, trading around $66,980 at the time of writing. According to analyst Sherlock, a rebound into $72,000 to $76,000 could be a bull trap, citing Strategy's 714,644 BTC at a $76,052 average cost and additional supply risks from spot ETF positioning.

In late 2025, Bitcoin climbed to a record $125,000 before sliding to about $66,888, marking a drawdown of nearly 46% amid growing fear and weakening demand. By February 2026, network data, ETF flows and falling active addresses showed a market dominated by risk reduction and uncertainty rather than strong retail participation.

Bitcoin’s recent pullback has seen wallets holding 0.1–1 BTC steadily accumulate, boosting their balances by about 1.05% since the October price peak. In contrast, holders with 1–10 BTC have trimmed exposure to a 38‑month low, while SOPR data shows both long‑ and short‑term participants increasingly transacting near breakeven or at losses.