Economist Timothy Peterson said 50% of Bitcoin's past 24 months were positive and argued this implies an 88% chance the asset will be above its current level by December. BTC traded at $68,173 at publication, while Polymarket odds put November at 18% and December at 17% for 2026's best month, and the Fear & Greed Index registered 9.

On 20 February, Bitcoin rose 1.52% but still failed to clear $70k after a Supreme Court tariff ruling and a hotter PCE reading. Roughly 10 minutes before the U.S. Q4 GDP release, a whale-linked wallet moved $335 million in BTC; the print came at 1.4%, spotlighting fragile support.

On Feb. 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump's IEEPA-based tariff program was illegal, jeopardizing an estimated $133.5 billion to roughly $179 billion in collected duties. Depending on how quickly refunds are processed and whether they are funded from Treasury cash balances or new bill issuance, the resulting liquidity shifts and deficit optics could shape both Bitcoin's liquidity backdrop and its anti-fiat narrative.

At the beginning of February, Bitcoin's price slid to its lowest level since Donald Trump was elected US president in November 2024, a move linked to heavy leverage in the BTC market. Over the past week, on-chain data shows a substantial deleveraging on Binance, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio falling by about 28% from roughly 0.1980 to 0.1414. Bitcoin now trades near $67,950, up almost 2% in 24 hours but still slightly lower on the weekly chart, as analysts say the market needs fresh spot demand to rebuild a durable uptrend.

On February 21, 2026, economist Nouriel Roubini labeled the GENIUS Act reckless and warned that uninsured stablecoins without a lender of last resort could face runs. On Wednesday, Bitcoin traded around 67,400 dollars, down 45 percent from its late-October high, as he dismissed it as a pseudo-asset and not an inflation hedge.

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that bitcoin exchange inflows have become increasingly dominated by large holders, with the exchange whale ratio climbing to 0.64, the highest level since October 2015. The firm also highlighted that average bitcoin inflows per transaction rose in February while stablecoin and altcoin flow patterns point to reduced buying power and persistent selling pressure.

Bitcoin's price has hovered near $68,000 resistance in recent days, trading around $67,960 with no notable 24-hour change. Whales recently realized more than $208 million in profits, the seventh such spike in the past two years. This pattern has often preceded short-term turbulence and, after supply absorption, local bottoms or stabilization.

Bitcoin has been trading in a consolidation range above $65K for more than a week after a 46% decline from $126K to $60K over the last three months, with realized losses exceeding $22 billion. VanEck analysts said 1–2 year holders, who largely bought near $72K, have sharply cut their selling as many are now underwater, while Bitcoin’s hash rate has fallen 14% over 90 days, a pattern that previously preceded stronger near-term returns.