1d ago
Fed note shows mortgage servicing rights can drop about 4% for each 1 percentage-point jump in refinancing speed
Four Federal Reserve economists said in a June 4 technical note that mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) are highly sensitive to changes in forecasts for how quickly borrowers refinance. They estimated MSR values fall about 4% for every 1 percentage-point rise in the expected refinancing rate, and could decline by as much as 13% in a severe recession scenario. Because MSRs do not have real-time market quotes, their book values rely on models of borrower behavior, which can directly affect quarterly earnings and dividend durability for mortgage REITs that hold large MSR portfolios, such as Rithm Capital.
1d ago
6-21
Equinor, BP and Shell scale back renewables spending as they refocus on oil, gas and LNG
Several international oil majors, including Equinor, BP and Shell, are adjusting their energy-transition strategies by reducing capital spending on renewables and refocusing on more profitable core oil and gas operations. BP has sold its U.S. onshore wind assets, Equinor has dropped its 2030 installed renewables capacity target, and Shell has scaled back hydrogen and offshore wind projects. The shift reflects a renewed emphasis on capital discipline aimed at improving shareholder returns and cash flow.
6-21
6-21
Palihapitiya says Tesla and SpaceX could merge, citing combined 30,000 bitcoin holdings
Technology investor Chamath Palihapitiya said on the All In Podcast that Tesla and SpaceX could merge, calling the outcome “glorious.” With SpaceX not publicly traded, Tesla remains the only listed vehicle for investors referenced in the discussion. The commentary suggested a merger could create a top-five global company by size and highlighted a combined 30,000 bitcoin position, while noting the claim is rumor-driven with no official confirmation or transaction milestone.
6-21
6-20
Agentic AI shifts the AI trade from infrastructure toward software winners beyond Nvidia
Agentic AI is moving from an infrastructure-led buildout to application-layer commercialization, as enterprises begin paying at scale for AI-enabled software. Microsoft’s Copilot products reached a $37 billion annual revenue run rate in Q1 2026, up 123% year over year, pointing to a shift from pilots to paid deployments. While NVIDIA continues to dominate AI compute infrastructure, the next phase of outsized gains is increasingly tied to software companies with distribution, vertical specialization, and proven ARR growth.
6-20
6-20
Iran war damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan cuts 10.2 mtpa LNG to Asia, nudging utilities back toward coal
The Iran war damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, triggering force majeure and disrupting about 10.2 mtpa of LNG supply to Asia, with some outages expected to last through late summer. Asia spot LNG prices have climbed to near three-year highs, prompting utilities to lean more on coal-fired power. Japan and South Korea’s May coal imports are tracking more than 50% and 20% above year-ago levels, respectively. Rystad Energy estimates the region could face a 35 mtpa LNG supply gap in 2026 that is increasingly being filled by higher coal use.
6-20
6-19
Nasdaq-100 rebalance set for June 22 forces $800 billion of passive buying into AI-linked newcomers
Nasdaq said on June 11 it will rebalance the Nasdaq-100 before the market opens on June 22, adding Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Nebius Group, Rocket Lab and Teradyne while removing five companies including Charter Communications. The change is expected to trigger mandatory repositioning by more than $800 billion that tracks the index. The new entrants are closely tied to AI capital spending, and CoreWeave—a newly listed AI computing provider—carries roughly $30 billion of debt and holds speculative-grade credit ratings. The reshuffle does not alter any company’s fundamentals, but it increases the index’s concentration in AI infrastructure and its embedded credit risk.
6-19
6-19
Nvidia’s $25 billion bond sale draws scrutiny as Senate deadline looms on China export controls
Nvidia completed a $25 billion long-term bond offering on June 15 and must submit a written response by June 18 to Senator Elizabeth Warren on how it ensures compliance with U.S. chip export controls to China. The inquiry cites multiple U.S. Department of Justice cases alleging third parties routed H100 and H200 chips and servers through Southeast Asia for resale into China, and it questions CEO Jensen Huang’s public remarks that Nvidia’s China market share has “dropped to zero.” Nvidia’s filings already assume zero Data Center revenue from China, but the heightened scrutiny makes the geopolitical risk in its long-term growth outlook more visible.
6-19
6-19
Alphabet upsizes equity raise to $84.75 billion to fund AI data centers
Alphabet raised $84.75 billion in an equity offering, the largest in U.S. corporate history, to help fund the data centers underpinning its AI services. The package includes a $10 billion private placement by Berkshire Hathaway and a $40 billion at-the-market program that Alphabet said is aimed mostly at covering taxes tied to employee equity awards rather than capital spending. The company has said it is “compute constrained in the near term” and lifted its 2026 capital spending guidance to between $180 billion and $190 billion, with a further increase signaled for 2027. The move contrasts with peers such as Nvidia, Meta, Oracle and Amazon that have leaned on bond sales to finance AI-related investment while preserving cash.
6-19