The Bitcoin Lightning Network processed more than $1 billion in payments in November 2025, marking its first billion‑dollar month and signaling rising real‑world usage. Researchers estimate the layer‑2 system handled about 5.2 million transactions in that period, while average transfer size climbed to $223, driven largely by exchange activity. Network capacity also exceeded 5,600 BTC, indicating expanding infrastructure for faster and cheaper Bitcoin payments.

On February 20, 2026, Bitcoin traded at $67,307, according to Finbold. A $2.3 million Polymarket market prices a 21% chance of a new ATH by December 31, with 15%, 7%, and 2% for September 30, June 30, and March 31, respectively, and resolves on Binance’s 1‑minute BTC/USDT highs. Views diverge: Ali Martinez and Michael Burry outline downside risks, while Bernstein and Standard Chartered project rebounds.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $165.8 million of outflows on Thursday, lifting weekly losses to $403.9 million and year-to-date redemptions to $2.7 billion. Analysts say 2026 is proving to be one of Bitcoin's weakest starts, with prices down roughly 22% YTD and IBIT leading weekly outflows at $368 million.

Bitcoin remains under the "True Market Mean" near $79,000, while the Realized Price around $54,900 defines the lower structural boundary. Analysts say persistent U.S. spot ETF outflows, tight liquidity and muted large-holder demand have kept price action confined to the $60,000–$70,000 band heading into late February.

According to developer Mononaut, Bitcoin's mining difficulty has jumped by about 15% to 144.4 trillion, marking one of the largest increases on record and fully reversing the previous epoch's sharp downward adjustment. As of February 20, 2026, this rebound in hashrate to 1 ZH/s is pressuring miners in the short term while Bitcoin trades around $68,104.38 with rising whale accumulation.

On 20 February 2026, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich defended the firm's Bitcoin accumulation strategy after the company posted a $619 million net loss for fiscal year 2025, mainly from non-cash mark-to-market adjustments. The firm holds 35,102 BTC as of February 2026 and has approved a $137 million capital raise to pursue its target of 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027.

On 20 February 2026, economist Peter Schiff warned that a drop in Bitcoin below the $50,000 level could trigger a decline toward $20,000, representing an 84% slide from its October 2025 peak above $126,000. He highlighted elevated leverage, institutional ETF outflows, and gold’s stronger performance as reasons he believes downside risks for Bitcoin have increased. Schiff also argued that recent market divergences have intensified the long-running debate between Bitcoin and gold.

Google Trends data showed that searches for "Bitcoin going to zero" hit an all-time high in January and February 2026, as BTC traded around $60k. Historical episodes in 2021, 2022 and 2025 suggest such spikes have coincided with local or cycle bottoms and were followed by major rebounds. The Bitcoin Rainbow chart currently places price in the "Bitcoin is dead" band, which has previously aligned with market low zones, though upcoming macro events could still influence whether a durable bottom forms.