According to aggregated 13F regulatory filings, institutional investors reduced their U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF exposure from 532K BTC in Q3 2025 to 513K BTC in Q4 2025, a decline of about 3.5%. This modest cutback came as BTC fell 23% and slipped below the reported $84.1K average ETF entry price, leaving the average ETF holder roughly 20% in loss at a BTC price of $68K.

Bitcoin is retesting a major resistance band between $68,300 and around $69,800 on the daily chart, after previously being rejected there. The bullish structure remains intact as long as price holds above the nearby $66,194–$66,956 support, while a break below could open the way toward the $64,535–$62,592 zone. A decisive daily close above the $68,300–$69,867 area would indicate stronger upside momentum and raise the probability of a move to new local highs.

Economist Timothy Peterson said 50% of Bitcoin's past 24 months were positive and argued this implies an 88% chance the asset will be above its current level by December. BTC traded at $68,173 at publication, while Polymarket odds put November at 18% and December at 17% for 2026's best month, and the Fear & Greed Index registered 9.

On 20 February, Bitcoin rose 1.52% but still failed to clear $70k after a Supreme Court tariff ruling and a hotter PCE reading. Roughly 10 minutes before the U.S. Q4 GDP release, a whale-linked wallet moved $335 million in BTC; the print came at 1.4%, spotlighting fragile support.

On Feb. 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump's IEEPA-based tariff program was illegal, jeopardizing an estimated $133.5 billion to roughly $179 billion in collected duties. Depending on how quickly refunds are processed and whether they are funded from Treasury cash balances or new bill issuance, the resulting liquidity shifts and deficit optics could shape both Bitcoin's liquidity backdrop and its anti-fiat narrative.

At the beginning of February, Bitcoin's price slid to its lowest level since Donald Trump was elected US president in November 2024, a move linked to heavy leverage in the BTC market. Over the past week, on-chain data shows a substantial deleveraging on Binance, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio falling by about 28% from roughly 0.1980 to 0.1414. Bitcoin now trades near $67,950, up almost 2% in 24 hours but still slightly lower on the weekly chart, as analysts say the market needs fresh spot demand to rebuild a durable uptrend.

On February 21, 2026, economist Nouriel Roubini labeled the GENIUS Act reckless and warned that uninsured stablecoins without a lender of last resort could face runs. On Wednesday, Bitcoin traded around 67,400 dollars, down 45 percent from its late-October high, as he dismissed it as a pseudo-asset and not an inflation hedge.

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that bitcoin exchange inflows have become increasingly dominated by large holders, with the exchange whale ratio climbing to 0.64, the highest level since October 2015. The firm also highlighted that average bitcoin inflows per transaction rose in February while stablecoin and altcoin flow patterns point to reduced buying power and persistent selling pressure.