Bitcoin is registering a familiar bottom signal as the supply-in-profit/loss ratio returns to zones seen at past capitulations. Analysts differ on the path ahead: Willy Woo cites weak spot and futures liquidity and maps outcomes from a typical floor near $45,000 to stress-driven $30,000, with $16,000 only under severe macro shifts. BTC trades at $65,928.14, down 1.7% daily and 26.3% over the past month.

Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet warned that Elliptic Curve Cryptography underpinning blockchain keys could be compromised by sufficiently powerful quantum computers, and said preparation must begin well before such capability arrives. On February 27, 2026, he described post quantum experiments inside secure elements, while experts caution that about seven million BTC, including roughly one million linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, could be exposed.

Bitcoin fell to about $65,950 after failing to hold the $70,000 area, while several analysts project the current bear phase could extend into late 2026. Based on on-chain metrics, past cycle durations and exchange reserve trends, they outline possible bottom zones between roughly $30,000 and $45,000, with some models clustering lows around the fourth quarter of 2026.

A Feb. 24 research note argues Bitcoin's familiar four-year bust cycles may be fading, citing lower realized volatility and a larger market. By Jan. 30, 2026, spot ETFs held nearly 1.3 million BTC (~6.4%) and public companies held over 1 million BTC (>5%), suggesting a steadier market structure. The study says this could reduce the odds of deep drawdowns.

Morgan Stanley plans to launch direct spot Bitcoin trading for retail investors on its E*TRADE platform in early 2026, partnering with Zerohash for trading and custody support. The bank will allow clients to buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin within standard brokerage accounts, with additional services such as lending, yield products, and in-house custody expected to follow. Bitcoin recently traded at $66,132 with a 24-hour volume of $43.370B, down 3.00% over the same period.

U.S. margin balances reached $1.279 trillion in Jan‑2026, a $53.445 billion increase from Dec‑2025, underscoring the leverage behind Bitcoin's advance. The U.S. Treasury's Feb. 4 guidance outlined up to $38B in liquidity buybacks and $75B for cash management, shaping collateral conditions as recession‑leaning indicators and policy timing keep risk correlations elevated.

Bitcoin fell about 3.3% within four hours on February 27, sliding from $68,000 to $65,770 after failing to reclaim $70,000 during the rebound that began on February 24. The $64,000 area is flagged as pivotal support, and a breach is seen as risking deeper losses and potential spillovers to U.S. equities.

Bitcoin has been confined between $60,000 and $70,000 for weeks, briefly slipping under $67,000 on Thursday. On February 27, 2026, Willy Woo said the investor-driven sell-off appears spent, pointing to a month of sideways trade and a likely rejection of any mid-$70,000 rebound, with the bear trend ending in Q4 2026. On February 26, 2026, Matt Hougan argued the decline was simply holders selling, with some reallocating to AI investments.