Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is registering a familiar bottom signal as the supply-in-profit/loss ratio returns to zones seen at past capitulations. Analysts differ on the path ahead: Willy Woo cites weak spot and futures liquidity and maps outcomes from a typical floor near $45,000 to stress-driven $30,000, with $16,000 only under severe macro shifts. BTC trades at $65,928.14, down 1.7% daily and 26.3% over the past month.

Bitcoin fell to about $65,950 after failing to hold the $70,000 area, while several analysts project the current bear phase could extend into late 2026. Based on on-chain metrics, past cycle durations and exchange reserve trends, they outline possible bottom zones between roughly $30,000 and $45,000, with some models clustering lows around the fourth quarter of 2026.

A Feb. 24 research note argues Bitcoin's familiar four-year bust cycles may be fading, citing lower realized volatility and a larger market. By Jan. 30, 2026, spot ETFs held nearly 1.3 million BTC (~6.4%) and public companies held over 1 million BTC (>5%), suggesting a steadier market structure. The study says this could reduce the odds of deep drawdowns.

Bitcoin fell about 3.3% within four hours on February 27, sliding from $68,000 to $65,770 after failing to reclaim $70,000 during the rebound that began on February 24. The $64,000 area is flagged as pivotal support, and a breach is seen as risking deeper losses and potential spillovers to U.S. equities.

Bitcoin has been confined between $60,000 and $70,000 for weeks, briefly slipping under $67,000 on Thursday. On February 27, 2026, Willy Woo said the investor-driven sell-off appears spent, pointing to a month of sideways trade and a likely rejection of any mid-$70,000 rebound, with the bear trend ending in Q4 2026. On February 26, 2026, Matt Hougan argued the decline was simply holders selling, with some reallocating to AI investments.

On Friday, February 27, Solana fell 2%, lifting its monthly decline to over 32% as volumes stayed muted. According to Finbold, its AI tool blending ChatGPT, Grok, and DeepSeek Chat points to $89.47 by Sunday, March 1, 2026, with individual calls at $88.90–$90.25, while technicals note a pivot at $87.56 and an RSI of 58.26.

Ethereum's derivatives flow on Binance is showing early signs of a changing market structure, with the Taker Buy Sell Ratio moving away from persistent sell-side dominance while ETH price remains in a corrective phase. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost notes that the monthly ratio, previously below 1 with readings such as 0.95 and a weekly 0.92, has recovered toward 0.99 and recently posted daily spikes above 1.12. At the time of reporting, ETH was trading around $2,028, as traders watch whether a sustained move in the ratio above 1 could confirm a shift toward buyer control in the futures market.

The Ethereum Foundation's Strawmap sets a 2029 target to lift Layer 1 capacity to about 10,000 TPS, roughly 1 gigagas per second, and cut finality from around 16 minutes to 6–16 seconds, delivered via up to seven hard forks on a six‑month cadence. The plan reframes L1 as a faster settlement layer alongside L2 scale, while traders are watching $2,150 resistance, $2,000 as a pivot, and $1,920–$1,800 as support.

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