Midterm election cycle risk: why 2026 could deepen Bitcoin's price swings and returns

On 13 March, Bitcoin climbed to $73.9K after spot ETFs recorded 570 BTC of positive inflows valued at $41.9 million, before sellers pushed the price back towards $70K. Bitcoin's funding rates have mostly been negative in March and sentiment has turned extremely fearful, while historical data from midterm election years since 2014 shows an average annual BTC return of -56%, pointing to a potential move near $39K if the pattern repeats. The same historical pattern highlights that post-election years have instead brought an average Bitcoin gain of 54%.