Prediction Markets Price Tariff Refund and New 10% Duty Odds After Supreme Court Curbs Trump's IEEPA Powers

Polymarket and Kalshi data show prediction markets pricing scenarios for U.S. tariff refunds and potential new 10% blanket tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on Feb. 21, 2026, that President Trump lacked authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping emergency duties. On Polymarket, a contract on whether the U.S. government will be forced to refund tariffs by June 30, 2026, shows 17% odds with $98,432 in weekend volume, while a separate market assigns 95% probability that a new 10% U.S. blanket tariff will be in effect by Feb. 28 and 84% by March 31, alongside 63% odds that China's tariff rate lands between 5% and 15% by March 31 and 95% probability of a Trump visit to China by April 30, 2026. Kalshi's contract on a court-ordered tariff refund assigns roughly 20% odds to such an order before April 1, 2026, rising to 54% by July 2026 and 72% before 2027 on $231,531 in total trading volume. Additional Polymarket bets include 27% odds of a tariff increase on Canada by June 30, 93% probability that Trump faces another lawsuit over tariff powers by March 31, 10% odds of a tariff dividend by March 31, and 25% probability that Indonesia is where Trump strikes a new trade deal before 2027.