Bitcoin (BTC) is staging a high-stakes recovery on February 25, 2026, retaking $65,611 as institutional giant Strategy (MSTR) acquires another 592 BTC. Despite a record five-week, $4.5 billion outflow from spot ETFs and 15% global tariff shocks, on-chain data reveals a massive 400,000 BTC accumulation floor near $60,000. Discover the fundamental events driving the Saylor Discount and the technical path back to $150,000.

According to the analysis, Bitcoin slipped below $65,000, tagged a $62,500 low, and is now rebounding but still trades under $66,500 and the 100-hour SMA. Immediate obstacles sit near $66,500–$66,600, with a stronger barrier at $67,200; failure to clear these levels risks a pullback toward $65,500 and $65,000.

Bitcoin has seen about $1.163 trillion erased from its market capitalization since its October peak of $2.515 trillion, while U.S. institutional appetite has weakened and ETF redemptions have risen. Around $2.81 billion has left U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the last two months, and recent spot net buying of roughly $305 million across three days points to fragile demand as retail traders try to absorb ongoing selling pressure.

During Tuesday’s session, Bitcoin slid toward $62,000 after briefly trading just above $62,500, then steadied near $64,000. On Polymarket, odds for a February close above $80,000 or $90,000 are 2% or less, while the probability of $60,000 or below is around 23%. Sentiment has cooled after failed rebounds earlier in the month.

On Monday, Tice P. Brown, a beneficial owner of roughly 9.8% of Empery Digital, urged the board to liquidate the firm's 4,081 BTC treasury, return proceeds to investors, and remove CEO Ryan Lane along with the directors. According to his letter, Brown rejected a Feb. 18 offer to repurchase his shares at 100% mNAV, calling it a premium meant to protect management.

On 24 February 2026, Emirates NBD, the UAE’s second-largest bank, described Bitcoin as "digital gold" and a long-term store of value while enabling in-app crypto trading and institutional custody. The bank is evaluating whether to add Bitcoin to its own portfolio, aligning with the UAE’s broader regulatory and tax framework that supports digital asset adoption. This shift comes as the country records tens of billions of dollars in annual crypto inflows and strengthens its position as a regional hub for virtual assets.

On Monday, Glassnode flagged that Bitcoin's 90‑day realized profit/loss ratio fell below 1, indicating traders are selling at a loss for the first time since 2022. Similar signals preceded declines of about 25% in 2022 and over 50% in 2018. MVRV pricing bands place an extreme-low zone near $43,760 as of February if weakness persists.

On a recent Tuesday, Bitcoin briefly slid to $62,700 after a 5% drop, while on-chain data showed capital flowing out of the network and aging supply. Realized Cap has fallen for a second month, and coins last moved 3–6 months ago now represent about 26% of supply, signaling weak new buyer activity. Analysts also point to a potential death cross on the three-day chart projected for late February 2025, echoing patterns seen before prior bear market capitulations.