Bitcoin's February 6 Decline Hits -5.65σ on 200-Day Window, Fourth Such Event Since 2010

Bitcoin experienced a significant early-morning decline on February 6, registering a -5.65 standard deviation on a 200-day lookback window, according to Benson Sun. This statistical anomaly, with a theoretical probability of approximately one in 100 million under normal distribution, is exceptionally rare; Sun noted only four such occurrences have been observed since July 2010, representing about 0.07% of trading days. Such extreme market movements reportedly strain quantitative trading strategies, particularly those developed using post-2015 data. CoinKarma's quant strategy, for instance, is currently in a floating loss, though it remains tolerable with about 1.4x leverage and a maximum drawdown around 30%.