Soybean futures ended higher, with the USDA reporting a private export sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2026/27. NASS crop progress data showed 50% of the U.S. soybean crop was blooming as of 7/12 and 19% was setting pods, both 6 percentage points ahead of normal. NOAA’s 7-day QPF forecast showed little to no precipitation across a swath from the Dakotas south through KS and into parts of MN, IA, IL and MO.

U.S. wheat futures fell across the board on Monday, with the CBOT September contract down 5 cents to $6.3525 per bushel and the KCBT September contract down 10 cents to $6.6625 per bushel. NASS crop progress data showed winter wheat harvest reached 67%, running 6 percentage points ahead of the long-term average. USDA’s weekly export report showed wheat exports of 373,600 tonnes for the week, down 15.97% from the same period a year earlier. Cumulative exports for the current marketing year totaled 1.893 million tonnes, down 17.32% year over year.

ICE cotton futures ended mixed on Monday, with the Oct 26 contract settling at 79.83 cents/lb, down 9 points, while Dec 26 fell 3 points and Mar 27 rose 2 points. U.S. crop progress data showed 60% of the cotton crop squared and 22% setting bolls, while the good/excellent rating slipped to 44%. ICE certified cotton stocks fell 31,480 bales to 127,127 bales. In broader markets, crude oil jumped $6.54 and the U.S. dollar index gained 0.325, while spot cotton trading was light and The Seam’s online sale averaged 76 cents/lb.

U.S. corn, soybean and wheat futures jumped, with SRW and HRW wheat touching six-week highs. December corn rose 9 cents to $4.61, November soybeans gained 9 1/4 cents to $11.90 3/4, September SRW wheat added 20 1/2 cents to $6.40 1/4, and September HRW wheat climbed 22 cents to $6.76 1/4. Prices were supported by hot, dry weather in the U.S. Midwest and parts of Europe, confirmed Chinese purchases of 264,000 MT of U.S. soybeans, and heightened Black Sea shipping risks. USDA’s monthly report also reduced old-crop corn carryover and slightly trimmed U.S. all-wheat production, reinforcing supply-tightening expectations.

Sugar futures in New York and London fell to 2-week lows as India’s monsoon rains improved, easing concerns about reduced output in the world’s second-largest sugar producer. India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall deficit narrowed to -19% from -42%, helping shift market focus toward looser supply expectations. A single-day surge of more than 8% in WTI crude oil could support ethanol production and limit sugar supply, but weather-driven supply optimism dominated trading. Several reports have lowered projected global sugar surpluses for 2025/26, while El Niño risks for 2026/27 remain.

ICE New York and London cocoa futures fell 3.68% and 3.31% on Monday. Ivory Coast data for the 2025/26 marketing year through July 12 put port shipments at 2.09 MMT, up 21% from a year earlier. ICE cocoa inventories climbed to 3,194,270 bags, a two-year high. Near-term pricing has been weighed by ample supply and year-on-year declines in cocoa grindings in North America and Europe, even as El Niño and early crop surveys point to medium-term output risks.

September ICE arabica coffee futures (KCU26) settled down 1.27% on Monday, while September ICE robusta (RMU26) fell 0.47%. Prices weakened as forecasts for dry weather in Brazil’s key growing areas were expected to accelerate the harvest, adding to supply pressure. Liquidity also thinned after Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) raised margin requirements twice last week, prompting commodity funds to unwind long positions, according to COT data. Vietnam’s export gains and a USDA projection of a record 71.9 million-bag Brazil crop further weighed on sentiment.

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has approved Circle’s application to establish Circle National Trust, a federal trust bank that would allow the company to custody USDC reserves under federal supervision. The charter would make Circle the first stablecoin issuer to secure such a license, boosting its standing with institutions and reducing reliance on third-party custodians. Even with CRCL down 66% over the past year, the approval has prompted a reassessment, with several banks lifting price targets into a $135–$160 range.

GE Aerospace is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 16 after a strong start to the year, including 87% order growth and adjusted EPS of $1.86 in Q1. In Q2, its services backlog is above $170 billion and commercial services orders are up more than 30% year over year, while spare-parts supply remains tight and services revenue is expected to grow by the high teens. Wall Street expects Q2 EPS of $1.86, up 12.1% year over year. However, GE stock is trading at about 48.01 times forward earnings, suggesting much of the optimism is already priced in.