Bitcoin fell below the $76,000 long-term realized cost basis over the weekend, a level built over roughly 27 months of accumulation and seen as structurally important. The move, driven by ETF outflows, tighter liquidity and defensive derivatives positioning, pushed price to stabilize near $78,000 while traders now watch $80,000 as the first upside reclaim target.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has outlined a medium-term downside objective for Bitcoin near $58,000 after the sharp rejection below $100,000 in January 2026. Using a long-term power law chart with a logarithmic growth channel, he argues that a return toward the channel's midline around $58,000–$60,000 would represent a reversion to fair value. Brandt's view comes after Bitcoin dropped from a high of $97,939 to a low of $75,555 in January, signaling strong selling pressure around the six-figure threshold.

Since November 11, severe winter storms in the United States have driven a roughly 12% drop in Bitcoin's network hashrate, pushing it down to around 970 exahashes per second. Mining revenue fell from about $45 million per day on January 22 to a low near $28 million two days later, as large operators curtailed output and profitability sank to levels last seen in November 2024.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly fell about 7% to $77,000 before rebounding to near $78,600, a move analyst PlanC contends could represent the deepest correction of the current bull market. He argues the price action resembles previous capitulation phases and estimates a potential cycle floor between $75,000 and $80,000, while other strategists warn that further downside toward the mid-$60,000 or even $60,000 area remains possible amid hawkish Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical tensions.

On 1 February 2026, Bitcoin Everlight was outlined as a lightweight transaction layer intended to improve Bitcoin-based payments while preserving Bitcoin's role as a settlement chain. The project introduces BTCL-powered node routing, external audits, and a multi-stage presale with a fixed 21,000,000,000 token supply. Ethereum, by contrast, relies on rollups and Layer 2 networks that already handle high-volume, low-fee activity and support lower average transaction values than Bitcoin.

On Saturday, Bitcoin plunged to a seven-month low just above $75,000, extending a nearly $20,000 loss over less than two weeks and closing January with a 10% decline. Analyst Merlijn The Trader argues this sharp sell-off and the extreme fear now reflected in sentiment could precede a major rally, highlighting quiet whale accumulation. He points to $78,000 as a key level that may decide whether BTC sees only a healthy pullback or a deeper move toward around $76,000.

Bitcoin slid about 7% on Saturday to around $77,000, with more than $2 billion wiped from the crypto market. It later hovered near $78,690 at publication, according to CoinMarketCap. Analysts are split: some see a bottom between $75,000 and $80,000, while others caution potential declines toward $60,000–$65,000 in 2026.

In the final stretch of January, Bitcoin briefly fell under $80,000 as analysts highlighted roughly $1.3 billion in liquidations within 12 hours. Market expert Burak Kesmeci views $80,000 as both a key technical support and the approximate cost basis for spot Bitcoin ETFs, with January 2026 net outflows already at $1.61 billion. He cautions that a confirmed weekly close below this level could extend downside toward $72,000, $68,000 and $62,000, while a rebound above $90,000 and $95,000, and eventually $100,000, would improve the bullish outlook.