Bitwise Europe Data Show Bitcoin Holders Face 0.70% Loss Probability Over Three Years

Bitcoin holders who maintained positions for three years faced only a 0.70% probability of losses, dropping to 0.2% over five years and 0% across ten-year periods, Bitwise Europe data show, based on price records from July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026. By contrast, intraday BTC trades were 47.1% in the red, with loss probabilities of 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month and 24.3% on a one-year window, according to the same dataset. As of a recent Saturday, BTC changed hands near $65,000 after a roughly 50% pullback from its October 2025 peak, while the 3–5 year realized price stood around $34,780, indicating investors who bought in that band remained close to 90% in profit; cost-basis figures also showed 6–12 month holders near $101,250 and 1–2 year holders around $78,150. Forward-looking views remain split, with Bernstein projecting Bitcoin at $150,000 in 2026, Standard Chartered flagging potential downside toward $50,000 before a recovery toward $100,000 by end-2026, and Timothy Peterson's model pointing to about $122,000 by early 2027.