Bitcoin briefly climbed above $73,000 on Friday and held the $70,000 area as weak US economic data and conflict in Iran pushed investors toward scarce assets. Despite four straight days of net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and a 14% rally from Feb. 24 to March 4, BTC remains tightly correlated with tech stocks and vulnerable to macro headwinds like elevated oil prices. Analysts suggest the five‑month decline from the $126,000 peak in October 2025 may still be in play, and recent price action has yet to confirm a decisive breakout.

Ether has struggled to hold above $2,100 over the past month while perpetual futures funding turned negative and spot Ether ETFs recorded $225 million in net outflows. At the same time, Ethereum’s staking yield near 2.8% trails stablecoin returns, and onchain fees and activity have cooled even as developers prepare upgrades like account abstraction and the Hegota fork.

Historical performance indicates Bitcoin has tended to rise about 20% within four weeks after sharp WTI oil price jumps of at least 15%. With WTI recently soaring to $101 per barrel and Bitcoin fluctuating around $66,000–$68,647 since Feb. 28, a move toward roughly $79,200 by the end of March remains possible if past patterns and risk sentiment hold. However, the sample covers only four major oil shocks since 2020, and Bitcoin's strong 81% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 suggests tech sector dynamics and the war-related macro backdrop could be just as decisive.

Ether fell 6% after briefly reaching $2,200, moving in step with declining US equities and broader risk-off sentiment as conflict in Iran extended and oil prices climbed. Derivatives data show a subdued futures premium and a 7% options skew, while weekly Ethereum DEX volumes slid to $12.6 billion and DApp revenues dropped to $14.1 million, even as the ecosystem still commands about 65% of total value locked including layer-2s.

Bitcoin recently climbed to a four-week high after rebounding 22% from a local bottom near $60,000, but derivatives pricing and on-chain data show traders still prefer downside protection. About 43% of the circulating supply is at a loss and major corporate holders face an average cost basis around $76,000, creating psychological and structural resistance below the prior $78,700 monthly close. Weak miner profitability and growing AI-related energy competition are adding further selling pressure that could slow any move higher.

Bitcoin maintained support near $68,000 on Tuesday while the US Dollar Index climbed from 96.6 to 99.4 over the past three weeks and gold slid 3.6%. At the same time, Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from 92% to 69%, and ETFs recorded $1.5 billion of net inflows since Feb. 24, highlighting resilient institutional demand despite a broader bear market.

Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to $32 billion, the lowest level since August 2024, even as BTC’s price recently bounced from $63,000. At the same time, options data shows a put-to-call premium near 0.7 and $7.5 billion in CME futures open interest, indicating that institutions still participate but with reduced bullish leverage. Onchain holdings by public companies and daily spot ETF volumes above $3 billion further suggest that institutional exposure has not disappeared.

Ether has fallen 36% in 2026 and retreated toward $1,900, even as Ethereum's core development targets base-layer scalability, privacy, and quantum resilience. Despite weak price action, Ethereum and its layer-2 networks retain 65% of total value locked and dominate RWA activity, while major financial institutions continue launching onchain initiatives.

On Friday, Bitcoin fell below $65,500 as U.S. wholesale inflation and equity jitters intensified. Analysts cut U.S. stocks to neutral on overvaluation, a weaker dollar and policy risks, while the 10-year yield slid to 3.97% from 4.21% over three weeks, sparking rotation talk toward BTC.