Ari Paul, founder of BlockTower and former Wall Street market maker, has pushed back on claims that Jane Street has been holding down Bitcoin’s price, arguing that recent weakness is better explained by spot selling. He acknowledges that market makers can influence intraday moves and add small costs to BTC ETF investors, but says they rarely keep an asset below fair value for long. Paul and on-chain analyst James Check instead point to large Bitcoin holders selling tens of thousands of coins, while BTC currently trades around $66,090.

In the first week of February, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score dropped to -3.38, far below the roughly -1.6 and -1.4 readings seen at the December 2018 and November 2022 cycle lows. Around 24-25 February, BTC swung between $62.5k and $70k before retracing to about $66k, while on-chain indicators such as NUPL and long-term holder MVRV suggested that a full capitulation phase and durable reaccumulation could still be some distance away.

Former Mt. Gox CEO Mark Karpelès has outlined a draft plan for a Bitcoin hard fork to recover nearly 80,000 BTC tied to the exchange’s 2011 hack, currently valued at over $5.2 billion. The proposal would redirect coins from a long-dormant theft address to a recovery wallet for court-supervised creditor repayments, reigniting debate over whether such changes undermine Bitcoin’s immutability.

Bitcoin traded sideways on Friday after a sharp two-hour drop of about 4.5% to roughly $64,200, according to Santiment. Open interest fell to around $19.5 billion from the $38.3 billion mid-January peak, while BTC stood at $65,712, down 2.45% over 24 hours, as analysts assessed sentiment and risk.

In 2026, Bitcoin is down roughly 30% since the start of 2024, while gold has gained 153%, highlighting a sharp divergence in performance. An analyst links this gap to expanding global money supply, subdued speculative appetite for tech and SaaS stocks, and falling crypto exchange balances. At the same time, trading interest on crypto platforms has tilted toward gold futures and away from core BTC holdings.

Mark Karpelès proposed a Bitcoin hard fork to enable recovery of about 79,956 BTC from a dormant address tied to the June 2011 Mt. Gox hack. The draft notes a coordinated upgrade would be required and warns of potential chain split risks. Those coins are outside the trustee’s estate; creditor repayments began in mid‑2024 with the deadline extended to October 2026.

On February 27, analyst Amr Taha reported that Bitcoin perpetual funding turned negative across major venues—Binance -0.005%, OKX -0.007%, Bybit -0.011%—and flagged a potential short squeeze if price advances toward liquidation clusters near $92,000. He also tracked about 1,700 BTC in net inflows from mid-term "Octopus" wallets to Binance, while CoinGecko showed BTC ranging between $66,600 and $68,600.

On Friday, Bitcoin fell below $65,500 as U.S. wholesale inflation and equity jitters intensified. Analysts cut U.S. stocks to neutral on overvaluation, a weaker dollar and policy risks, while the 10-year yield slid to 3.97% from 4.21% over three weeks, sparking rotation talk toward BTC.