Bitcoin whales controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have stepped up accumulation, lifting their combined holdings to roughly 3.204 million BTC and marking the fastest buildup since 2024. In January, their share of trading activity on Binance rose to nearly 0.65, while 30‑day whale balances grew by about 152,000 BTC despite a BTC price drop of over 6% on January 30. Social media sentiment turned sharply negative after Bitcoin slid to below $82,000, a move some analysts link to conditions consistent with market capitulation.

Concerns about quantum computing's ability to undermine Bitcoin's cryptography are shifting from a distant issue to one that now requires active planning. qLabs plans to launch its qONE token with a presale on 5 February 2026 at 2pm UTC, positioning its technology as a quantum-resistant layer for existing blockchains. Analysts estimate that a significant share of Bitcoin could be exposed in the long term, prompting major chains such as Ethereum to roll out dedicated quantum defense initiatives.

On Thursday, Bitcoin fell in sharp stages from $84,400 to the low-$81,000s, triggering roughly $1.7 billion in liquidations. By Friday morning, it was attempting to reclaim $83,000 after hotter-than-expected PPI, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a -$817.8 million net outflow on Jan. 29 and about -$978 million across four sessions.

On Jan. 29, Bitcoin spot ETFs registered their largest single-day outflow of 2026, with $817.87 million withdrawn across funds, according to SosoValue. BTC traded around $84,220 after falling over 4% in 24 hours, while total ETF trading value reached $7.51 billion. Issuer outflows were led by BlackRock at $317.81 million, followed by Fidelity and Grayscale.

Crypto analyst Tony Severino contends that Bitcoin’s primary bullish cycle has already run its course, based on traditional market cycle theory and U.S. ISM PMI data. He notes that the PMI trend of lower highs and lower lows, with the index near 47.9 and key risk levels at 46 and 41.6, signals a weakening backdrop that conflicts with expectations for a fresh major uptrend. Severino also highlights a monthly moving-average breakdown and past 40% to 60% drawdowns, suggesting a potential downside target around $45,000 before any renewed bullish phase.

Bitcoin has dropped below $84,000 after several unsuccessful attempts to break through the $94,000–$97,000 resistance zone, with some analysts warning that a further decline toward the $74,000–$76,000 area is possible if the level does not hold. Other market observers point to historical cycle patterns that could see the price fall much deeper, while some analysts still view the broader structure as bullish and see potential for a move toward $200,000 before a major correction.

As of January, estimated electricity and all-in production costs to mine one BTC are about $59,450 and $74,300, while Bitcoin traded near $82,500 on Friday. A recent drop in hash rate and a reported miner pullback point to downside toward that cost band, though prior cycles have seen rebounds toward an energy-value fair price around $120,950.

On January 30, 2026, Binance CEO Richard Teng endorsed the company's open letter addressing market volatility and service standards. The letter outlined plans to convert the $1 billion SAFU, currently in stablecoins, into Bitcoin over the next thirty days and to top the fund back up if its value falls to $800 million.