Bitcoin is trading above $70,000 while on-chain metrics show exchange balances have dropped by about 204,000 BTC since the start of the year. Analysts note that retail traders are realizing losses, short-term whales sit below an $85,600 cost basis, and long-term holders remain inactive, a mix that could tighten circulating supply.

Since the Iran conflict intensified on Feb. 27, JPMorgan analysts report that SPDR Gold Shares has seen outflows of about 2.7% of its assets, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has attracted inflows of roughly 1.5%. Bitcoin is trading above $70,000 as spot BTC ETFs draw capital away from gold, even as derivatives positioning and rising short interest signal more cautious institutional sentiment.

On March 12, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, is estimated to have purchased about 4,038 BTC in what may be its largest single-day Bitcoin acquisition. The buy is believed to have been financed through issuance of the firm’s STRC capital instrument and could temporarily absorb tens of millions of dollars in market liquidity. At the time, Bitcoin traded around $71,847.22, showing daily, weekly and monthly gains.

Bitcoin's market structure is flashing a potential bottom as a macro model based on the US and China 10-year yields issues a fresh bullish crossover. Large Bitcoin holders holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulation during the latest price drop, while key weekly moving averages and an oversold RSI suggest room for a rebound toward the $100,000 area in the coming months.

Tether has joined Ark Labs's $5.2 million funding round to help expand USDT's reach on the Bitcoin network via Arkade, a financial infrastructure platform on BTC. With USDT already representing over 55% of the $320 billion stablecoin market, its growing on-chain activity has increasingly coincided with Bitcoin relief rallies, hinting that stablecoin liquidity may be shaping BTC's future price moves.

According to Axel Adler Jr., the last active sell-side risk alert appeared in December 2024 at $107K and has remained off for 449 days, while a sustained Accumulation Signal has been active since January 18, 2026. The Rolling Mean Sell-side Risk Ratio has dropped to 1,913, a level historically seen in bear markets, even though spot prices are around $67K-$72K. This combination suggests seller activity is depressed and the market is in an accumulation phase, with the main risk being extended consolidation without a strong price catalyst.

Around 27,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of about $1.9 billion are expiring on Friday, March 13, alongside a rebound in spot crypto prices. Open interest in BTC and ETH options has climbed, while overall crypto market capitalization has returned to $2.5 trillion with Bitcoin nearing $72,000 and altcoins mostly advancing.

Bitcoin is trading above $70,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average after rebounding from the $68,971 swing low. The BTC/USD pair is consolidating below $71,750–$72,000 resistance, with potential upside targets at $73,200–$75,000 if buyers break higher, while supports sit at $70,400, $70,000 and down to $66,500.