Spot gold held near $4,170 an ounce while silver edged higher. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September and producer prices climbed 1.3% on the month, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, as rising energy costs deepened inflation concerns. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal of an October rate increase, and traders kept the odds of a December hike near 89%. A softer dollar and lower Treasury yields over the week supported precious metals.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks stressing the inflation fight pushed markets to reprice September tightening, lifting hike odds to 57.5% from 35.9%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 11.8 basis points to 4.348% and the dollar index gained 0.5%. Spot gold fell 3.14% to $4,456 and spot silver dropped 4.24% to $66.21.

Gold has held the key $4,000-per-ounce support level for five consecutive weeks but has failed to sustain gains above $4,100. Over the same period, escalating conflict in Iran lifted oil to a nine-week high, reinforcing inflation concerns. Markets are not expected to see a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, but the implied probability of a September hike has risen to about 66%. Investors are also watching the Bank of Japan’s July 31 meeting for a potential hawkish surprise as the yen slid to a 40-year low, while the U.S. is considering 10%–12.5% tariffs on major trading partners that could add second-round inflation pressure.