Strategy (MSTR) fell to $98.83, marking its first drop below $100 and leaving the stock down more than 80% from its November 2024 peak. The company holds 847,363 BTC worth about $53 billion at current prices, but with an average cost of roughly $75,656 per coin it is sitting on an unrealized paper loss of more than $11 billion. Recent steps including a BTC sale, a discounted convertible-bond repurchase and a reduced dividend-coverage buffer have added to concerns about its financial resilience. While the move does not directly hit traditional assets, MSTR’s role as a volatile Nasdaq-listed tech stock closely tied to the crypto narrative could reinforce risk-off sentiment toward high-valuation tech if the slide persists.

JPMorgan says bitcoin is trading near $63,000, well below the industry’s average all-in production cost of about $78,000, extending loss-making mining conditions for five straight months. The bank estimates roughly 20% of miners are unprofitable, and says listed operators including RIOT and MARA sold a combined 32,000 bitcoin in Q1 to fund expenses. It also points to weaker fundamentals, with hashprice around $33/PH/s/day alongside declines in hashrate and mining difficulty.

美联储6月议息会议维持利率不变，但点阵图大幅下调2024年降息预期，并保留进一步加息可能；美元指数升至一年高位，美债收益率上行。尽管美伊达成临时协议、霍尔木兹海峡重开、伊朗原油出口恢复，油价本应受益，但市场无视该利好，反而因宏观转向紧缩而下跌至75美元/桶附近。事件核心驱动为货币政策转向，直接冲击大宗商品与风险资产定价。