Default rates at listed vehicles tied to several large private-credit funds have risen to their highest level since 2021, with Blue Owl’s defaulted loans reaching 2.8%, a five-year high. Watchlists at Ares, Golub and KKR have also expanded to their largest levels since the last Fed rate-hike cycle, even as executives publicly downplay the risks. Meanwhile, returns that once held above 10% have slid toward 7% or lower, putting pressure on the sales pitch aimed at wealthy individuals.

Brent crude briefly fell below $72.48 a barrel and then rose to about $73, returning to its Feb. 28 level from before the Iran conflict began. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been recovering after the June 17 US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and a partial easing of sanctions, though it remains below prewar levels. In the U.S., gasoline prices have eased from April’s recent high but are still elevated, prompting President Trump to order an investigation into whether major oil companies are overcharging.

USDA data show the U.S. beef cow herd has fallen to its smallest level since 1951, after drought pushed ranchers to cull breeding cows earlier than planned. A New World screwworm outbreak is adding another threat to supply. The national average price for 80/20 ground beef is $8.34 per pound, well above the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour and nearly four times the level in 2009. Because rebuilding the herd takes 2–3 years, the shortage is unlikely to ease quickly.

The New York Times reports that the U.S.-Israel war with Iran has severely disrupted Middle East oil and gas flows, sending prices sharply higher. The UAE’s exit from OPEC+ is raising questions about the cartel’s stability, while growing risks to transit through the Strait of Hormuz are tightening crude supplies. The article argues the shock is structural rather than easily reversed by a short-term peace framework, lifting both activity and price levels in spot and futures oil trading.