The U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming. Over the past month, WTI fell 27% to $70.45 a barrel, while average retail gasoline slid 13% to $3.93 a gallon but remained 32% above pre-war levels. Experts say declines in crude prices typically take weeks to months to filter through because refinery inventories, logistics and the seasonal shift to summer fuel blends can slow the drop at the pump.

Iran has been cleared to export crude under a temporary U.S.-Iran agreement and has already sent at least three state-owned tankers, shipping nearly 18 million barrels over the past five days valued at $1.44 billion. Brent crude has fallen from above $110 a barrel to around $80, while the average U.S. gasoline price has dropped to under $4 a gallon. The shift has lifted expectations for global supplies of crude and refined products, adding short-term downward pressure on prices.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance had been set to travel to Switzerland to begin technical negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, but the talks were put on hold after Iran delayed sending its delegation. The pause followed Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon, which Iran cited as the reason for the delay, according to Al-Mayadeen. The disruption adds to near-term uncertainty around oil supply after Washington and Tehran signed an agreement giving a 60-day window to reach a permanent nuclear arrangement and restore oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to prewar levels.

美国国防部长赫格塞斯在北约防长会上提出“北约3.0”，要求欧洲盟友主导大陆常规防御，并明确美国将不再在危机中提供航母、加油机等关键常规战力支援。此举源于美军需聚焦印太两线作战，但核威慑仍保留。事件属北约内部责任再分配，不构成突发军事升级或制裁，亦未引发能源、金属等大宗商品供应扰动。

Protesters from Mongolia’s Radical Reform Movement blocked the export road for copper concentrate from Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi mine on Wednesday, forcing shipments to pause. The mine accounts for about 9% of Mongolia’s tax revenue and is expected to rank as the world’s fourth-largest copper mine once fully operational, with annual capacity of more than 500,000 tons of copper. The company warned that if the blockade lasts a week it could cost the government more than $13.3 million. The disruption is a sudden supply-chain shock that tightens the margin of global copper supply.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said artificial intelligence is forcing society to change and urged people to use the technology while supporting regulation. He argued AI can narrow America’s technology gap by enabling people to do advanced computer work without knowing how to program, according to an Associated Press interview. Huang also said governments need safety standards for AI and that national security should be a priority.

Nvidia said it will work with Coherent on a $2 billion AI infrastructure upgrade at Coherent’s plant in Sherman, Texas, to scale production of indium phosphide lasers. The lasers are designed to enable high-speed, low-power optical links between chips, supporting Nvidia’s “AI factory” system architecture. The project is backed by $50 million in subsidies from two U.S. administrations and is expected to create 1,000 jobs. The partnership underscores Nvidia’s push to expand from a GPU supplier into an end-to-end AI systems provider.

An International Energy Agency report says the war in Iran has highlighted Southeast Asia’s heavy reliance on oil and gas shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, sharpening regional energy security risks. The report warns the region’s energy import bill could reach $245 billion by 2035, up from $80 billion in 2024, accelerating moves into rooftop solar, nuclear power and electric vehicles. While supplies have not been directly disrupted, higher geopolitical risk premiums and near-term demand rigidity are adding momentum to upward pressure on crude prices.