Several Thai brokerages have raised their targets for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index, with the most bullish calling for 1,730 points, citing improving corporate earnings and stronger economic momentum. They also point to renewed foreign buying, with 28 billion baht in month-to-date net inflows, and a Constitutional Court ruling that the government’s 400 billion baht emergency loan decree was lawful. The SET trades at about 17 times projected 2026 earnings, or 13.1 times excluding Delta Electronics (Thailand), and offers an estimated 2026 dividend yield of 3.6%, above the MSCI ACWI average.

Thailand’s Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has proposed raising the fuel tariff (Ft) to 0.94 baht per kilowatthour from 0.16 baht per kilowatthour, a near fivefold increase that would lift overall electricity prices. The new rate is slated to take effect from September, while the current 3.95 baht per unit tariff will remain through the end of August. The ERC cited an 8% increase in the projected Pool Gas price to 375 baht/mmBtu and the need to gradually repay the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) for 31.2 billion baht in subsidy-related debt. Public consultation is open until July 20.

The US said its ceasefire agreement with Iran was “over,” and new strikes between the two sides slowed shipping through the State of Hormuz again. Brent briefly jumped to $79 a barrel before easing to $76.30. Opec+ agreed to raise cumulative quotas by 940,000 barrels per day to keep crude prices in check. In Thailand, June inflation eased to 2.42% and retail diesel and gasoline prices were cut by more than 2.5 baht a litre, while the SET index rose 0.6% for the week to 1,621.55 with net foreign buying of 16.35 billion baht.

An analyst expects the odds of successful US-Iran ceasefire talks to rise, with global crude prices potentially easing toward US$70 per barrel. He argues the Trump administration could loosen oil sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela to expand supply and bring prices down. Elevated oil prices are keeping US CPI and PPI under pressure, adding political incentives for a policy shift. The assessment does not cite any confirmed agreement or action and is presented as a policy pathway rather than an announced deal.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit an interest-rate forecast in the central bank’s latest quarterly projections, breaking with a long-standing practice, while the federal funds rate was held at 3.50% to 3.75%. The new dot plot included 18 submissions from 19 policymakers, with nearly half expecting a rate hike this year and six anticipating more than one quarter-point increase by year-end. The shift underscores growing concern that higher fuel prices could feed more broadly into inflation, even as the Iran-U.S. deal eased geopolitical tensions but damage to energy facilities may slow the recovery of oil exports. The development is seen as a signal of a policy pivot that strengthens near-term hike expectations and adds demand-side pressure to commodities such as crude oil.

Thailand’s Energy Ministry said it will keep its ban on refined oil exports, allowing only limited shipments to Laos and Myanmar and a narrow exemption for A1 jet fuel exports to the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam. The restrictions were introduced amid continued tensions involving Iran, Israel and the US, which have raised concerns about potential disruption to petroleum, chemical and LNG transport around the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic diesel demand has risen to more than 77 million litres per day, while storage constraints have led refineries including PTT Global Chemical and Bangchak Sriracha to cut output by 15%.

PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR) and Bangchak Corp cut retail fuel prices at stations nationwide early Tuesday. Most petrol grades, including gasoline 95 and gasohol E20, were reduced by 1.20 baht per litre, while highspeed diesel fell by 1.00 baht per litre. The move followed a slide in global oil prices to their lowest level since March after Iran and the United States agreed to end their war.