Bitcoin Realized Loss Signal Resurfaces as Glassnode Metrics Flag Risk of Drop Below $44,000

Bitcoin traders' realized profit/loss ratio on a 90-day moving average has fallen below 1, indicating investors are now selling at a loss and reviving a signal last seen in 2022, Glassnode data show. Historical data show that when this metric moves under 1, it has typically preceded at least six months of realized losses and further price weakness, with Bitcoin dropping about 25% in the 2022 bear market and over 50% in 2018 within months of the crossover. Glassnode said that if similar patterns play out again, Bitcoin could fully transition into an oversold realization phase with a downtrend that may persist for more than five months. Based on the MVRV pricing range indicator, Bitcoin's current extreme low zone is around $43,760, a level historically consistent with bear-market bottoms and within the $40,000–$50,000 potential support band cited by multiple analysts.