U.S. stocks rose on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite touching an intraday record after weaker-than-expected jobs data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate increase of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s meeting later this month slipped to 23.8%. The Dow climbed 0.43%, the S&P 500 gained 0.70% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.14%. Rate-sensitive groups such as real estate and small caps led, while Nvidia and Tesla provided the biggest lift to the S&P 500.

Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since July as conflict flared again in the Middle East, stoking inflation concerns. The US two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.42%, the highest since January 2025, while the 10-year yield hovered near 4.81%, close to a three-year peak. Swaps imply a roughly 62% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates by a quarter-point next week.

A strong U.S. jobs report has strengthened the argument for interest-rate increases, even as President Donald Trump warned he could halt trade with some countries unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates, leaving Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh under pressure ahead of the September meeting. Labor force participation rose to 61.6%, and job gains helped keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years, and Warsh’s recent hawkish comments have been read as opening the door to a possible rate hike.

A selloff in long-dated U.S. Treasuries has pushed the 30-year yield up to 5.29%, the highest level since 2007. Investors have focused on rising national debt, heavy long-bond supply and inflation running above the Federal Reserve’s target. The Treasury sold $25 billion of new 30-year bonds at a 5.216% yield, the highest auction level since 2001. Inflation has remained sticky, with the consumer price index up 3.4% year over year.