In Q4 2025, Ethereum saw deployed contracts climb to 9.1 million and NFT volume reach $12.6 million, while weekly DApp activity surged 1,135% to $180 billion. Despite this strong on-chain and developer momentum, ETH’s price fell 45%, trades below $2k, and still lags Bitcoin by about 1.5x, with the ETH/BTC pair slipping 0.28% over the past week. Leverage-heavy positioning and weak spot demand suggest Ethereum is unlikely to repeat its Q2 2025 performance against BTC and may continue to underperform if current trends persist.

On 20 February, Bitcoin rose 1.52% but still failed to clear $70k after a Supreme Court tariff ruling and a hotter PCE reading. Roughly 10 minutes before the U.S. Q4 GDP release, a whale-linked wallet moved $335 million in BTC; the print came at 1.4%, spotlighting fragile support.

In the last 30 days, memecoin market capitalization has dropped by nearly $10 billion as capital exits crypto instead of rotating into high-risk tokens. Key Trump-linked coins have plunged over 90% from their highs, leaving retail investors with multibillion-dollar losses and reinforcing a shift toward safer alternative assets.

Ethereum has traded sideways around the $2,000 level after a 50% drop from its mid-January high, while an Arkham-tracked whale holds a $200 million ETH long. Despite this leveraged bet, unrealized profits for large holders have turned negative and weak spot demand leaves open the risk that $2,000 becomes a bull trap rather than a durable support.

Bitcoin has moved sideways for over two weeks and has spent more than six weeks consolidating between $85k and $90k, after briefly pushing above $97k before reversing. According to CoinMarketCap, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped into extreme fear, while soft spot demand and ETF outflows leave momentum weak and put focus on whether $65k can hold into late March.

Altcoin momentum has improved, yet multiple market signals indicate a broad altcoin season has not started. BTC dominance remains under a key threshold while ETH/BTC’s rebound has not shifted the larger trend, and recent exchange activity indicates capital still leans toward Bitcoin rather than Ethereum and other large-cap networks.

In Q4 2025, references to "AI disruption" on earnings calls surged to 126, triple the level a year earlier, while Bitcoin fell 24% even as Nvidia extended gains from a 39% jump in 2025. Analysts see this widening gap between Bitcoin and tech stocks, along with weakening confidence in the U.S. dollar, as a sign of growing AI-linked financial risk that could eventually support Bitcoin as a long-term hedge. Arthur Hayes argues that an AI-driven rotation out of crowded tech trades and into digital assets could be the trigger for new all-time highs.

Grayscale launched its SUI staking ETF (GSUI) on 18 February, bringing the SUI network directly onto Wall Street’s radar as the token struggles with a 31% decline in 2026 and a 57% drop last year. While SUI’s TVL has fallen to about $580 million and open interest is down nearly 30%, the ETF’s staking rewards could attract more institutional capital and validators. However, an upcoming unlock of 43.35 million SUI on 01 March may add volatility and test whether GSUI can genuinely support a DeFi recovery.

Solana’s SOL is down 31% in 2026 even as network metrics firm up. According to DeFiLlama, DeFi TVL hit a record $80 million on stablecoin inflows, while Dune Analytics shows Solana meme launchpads handling nearly $100 million daily and 30,000 new tokens per day this week. The mix complicates the undervaluation case.