Nos últimos dois anos, a atividade de negociações em mercados de previsão aumentou 393 vezes. Agora, empresas maiores começam a internalizar esse tipo de produto, em vez de depender de startups especializadas. Charles Schwab e BetConstruct AI afirmaram que lançariam negociações de eventos “sim ou não” em suas próprias plataformas no mesmo dia. A movimentação sugere que contratos baseados em eventos estão deixando de ser exclusivos de players como Polymarket e Kalshi.

Mesmo com a Polymarket, uma das maiores marcas do setor, enfrentando questionamentos sobre sua promoção, os mercados de previsão seguem batendo recordes. O open interest do segmento chegou a US$ 1.48 billion na semana encerrada em June 15, marcando o segundo recorde consecutivo, segundo a16z Crypto. Diferentemente do volume de negociação, o open interest mede o valor das apostas ainda em aberto.

Um novo grupo de empresas de tecnologia está desafiando as favoritas tradicionais de Wall Street. A mudança ocorre após um grande IPO, uma compra de $60 billion e uma ordem do governo que bloqueou o acesso a um dos sistemas de IA mais poderosos dos EUA. Investidores há anos se concentraram nas “Magnificent Seven”, mas observadores de mercado afirmam que o FAB 10 rapidamente passou a dominar a conversa.

Sportradar reached a multi-year global agreement to supply sports data and related services to prediction market platform Kalshi. After the announcement, SRAD shares rose 9.06% and were trading at $15.16, while Needham lifted its price target to $23 from $19 and kept a Buy rating. Needham also said prediction markets can deliver more revenue per dollar of volume for data providers than traditional sportsbooks.

After one week of U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran, President Donald Trump on Friday rejected any diplomatic settlement short of Iran's "unconditional surrender" while Tehran dismissed calls for a ceasefire. The escalation has disrupted global energy markets, driven Brent and WTI prices sharply higher, and forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving 147 container ships stranded and intensifying pressure on Europe's gas supplies.

In the week before March 5, 2026, Polymarket removed a prediction market that had attracted over $650,000 in volume on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by specific future dates. Around the same period, Kalshi faced political backlash over a market tied to whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be "out" after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, and later offered refunds. The controversies have coincided with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission advancing a rulemaking process to set federal standards for prediction markets.

On March 3, 2026, Visa and Bridge announced plans to extend their stablecoin-backed card program to more than 100 countries by year-end, up from the current 18. Cardholders will be able to spend stablecoins at over 175 million Visa-accepting merchants, while a separate pilot with Lead Bank is testing direct on-chain settlement for issuers.

After the strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Iranians rushed into Nobitex and other domestic exchanges, driving a 700% jump in crypto outflows as they tried to shield savings from a weakening rial and potential banking curbs. Subsequent internet restrictions reportedly cut national connectivity by about 99%, freezing access to major platforms, slowing withdrawals, and forcing some venues to batch transfers. The episode underscored how cryptocurrencies can offer an escape from a fragile financial system while blockchain transparency simultaneously exposes money flows to authorities and global monitors.

On March 1, 2026, Iran established a three-member interim leadership council after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike. Crypto prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi quickly listed markets on the timing and nature of his succession, with Polymarket's volume on the successor-timing market surpassing $500,000 and odds shifting across several March dates.