Bitcoin ended Sunday's weekly session at $76,931, closing below its 100‑week simple moving average near $87,500. Drawing on prior cycles, analysts note such breaks have historically lasted 182 to 532 days, while heavy spot volume between $85,000 and $95,000 and a jump in USDT dominance suggest resistance could delay a move toward $100,000 for six months or more.

Bitcoin fell to $83,600 during the New York session, pressing the lower bound of a 10‑week consolidation defined since Nov. 17, 2025. CryptoQuant reported taker sell volume of roughly $4.1 billion over two hours, and about $570 million in long positions were liquidated as price slipped from $88,000. Analysts describe the move as a futures‑driven correction rather than a structural breakdown.

Bitcoin bulls have kept the price above the $80,700–$83,400 support area, while derivatives data points to a potential liquidity sweep around $93,500. On-chain metrics from Glassnode indicate that a lasting BTC uptrend is unlikely until liquidity-sensitive indicators, especially the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio, move back into a historically strong zone. With over 22% of supply held at a loss and Binance inflows hovering near 2020 lows, analysts see reduced immediate selling pressure but warn that a deeper correction remains possible if support fails.

Bitcoin’s monthly gain is currently around 2.2%, but network economist Timothy Peterson highlights that February has historically delivered some of the cryptocurrency’s strongest weekly returns, with the week ending Feb. 21 showing a median 8.4% gain and a 60% positive close rate since 2016. Analysts including Peterson, Sminston With and Sina say macroeconomic conditions, consolidation patterns and models such as the Bitcoin Decay Channel suggest BTC could still have long-term upside potential, even after recent corrections.

Crypto analyst Sykodelic links a three-step macro sequence—global liquidity, the Russell 2000, then Ether—to ETH's prior 226% surge from March to November 2021, and flags a potential breakout window around March 2026. Max of BecauseBitcoin noted the Russell 2000 hit a 2,738 all-time high on Thursday, while CryptoQuant shows accumulation addresses’ realized price rising near $2,720.

On Jan. 20 and Jan. 21, exchanges received over 17,000 BTC, coinciding with a failed rally near $90,000. Netflow has since normalized to +296 BTC, but inflows leave a supply overhang as price retests the $89,000–$90,000 area. Spot metrics have improved, yet buying strength appears insufficient to clear resistance.

Ether's price closed a daily candle under $3,000 on Tuesday while large holders and institutions accumulated more than $130 million in ETH. Despite this buying, technical levels near $3,000 have broken and liquidity data still point to possible downside toward the $2,700 area.

According to Cointelegraph/TradingView, the BTC-to-gold ratio slid to around 18.5 ounces per Bitcoin on Wednesday, its lowest level since November 2023, as gold set a new high near $4,888 and BTC hovered above $90,000. Analysts including Charles Edwards, Decode and Bitwise's André Dragosch view the discount as unusual and say it may precede a rotation back into BTC.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin slipped below $90,000, and multiple analysts warned of sustained sell-side pressure driven by inflows from large holders. CryptoQuant data indicates newer whales (UTXO age under 155 days) now control more realized capital, with a cohort realized price near $98,000 and about $6 billion in unrealized losses, keeping $85,000 in focus.